Prediction
"What comes next within the passage's world?"
Stay inside the text and extend the author's logic one careful step.
SAT Reading Strategy
Prediction and Extrapolation on the SAT
How to Read Beyond the Final Sentence
Track the author’s logic, locate evidence quickly, and sharpen your reasoning.
Strategy
Evidence-First Reading
Anchor every answer in the exact line that proves it. If you cannot point to the words, it is not the answer.
- Read the question, then scan for the line that directly supports a choice.
- Match wording, not vibe: synonyms are fine, new ideas are not.
- If two answers feel close, eliminate the one with any extra claim.
Why Prediction and Extrapolation Matters on the SAT
Rather than asking what a passage says, certain SAT Reading questions ask what it suggests, what would logically follow, or how an author's argument would most likely extend to a new situation. These questions often mark the difference between students scoring in the 600s and those breaking into the 700s and beyond. The encouraging part is that prediction and extrapolation are not mysterious talents. They are trainable skills built on a habit you already use every day: reading the evidence in front of you and reasoning about what comes next.
Think about the last time you watched a movie and whispered to a friend, "I bet this character is about to make a terrible decision." You weren't guessing randomly, you were reading cues: the character's earlier choices, the rising tension, the filmmaker's patterns. That instinct is prediction. Now imagine someone asks you, "If this character moved to a completely different city, how would they handle a new problem?" That leap, taking what you know and applying it to an unfamiliar scenario, is extrapolation. Both skills rely on the same foundation: close attention to evidence and logical reasoning.
In this guide, you'll learn exactly how the SAT tests these skills, develop a repeatable strategy for tackling them under time pressure, and practice with passages that mirror what you'll see on test day. By the end, you won't just be answering these questions, you'll be approaching them with genuine confidence.
01
Prediction vs. Extrapolation
Extrapolation
"What would happen outside the passage's world?"
Apply the passage's pattern to a new scenario without inventing evidence.
Both require you to read carefully, identify the author's reasoning or direction, and then take a disciplined logical step beyond the text. Neither asks you to guess. On the SAT, there is always enough evidence in the text to support the correct answer, you just need to know where to look and how to reason from it.
How the SAT Tests This Skill
You'll recognize prediction and extrapolation questions by their distinctive phrasing. Look for language like:
- "Based on the passage, which of the following would the author most likely agree with?"
- "The author's argument most strongly suggests that..."
- "If the trend described in the text were to continue, which outcome is most likely?"
- "Which situation is most analogous to the phenomenon described in the text?"
- "Based on the passage, how would the researcher most likely respond to..."
Notice the recurring words: most likely, suggests, would, analogous. These signal that the answer isn't stated directly in the text, you need to reason beyond it while staying tethered to what it actually says. The SAT is testing whether you can think logically under pressure without drifting into speculation.
These questions appear across all passage types, literature, history, science, and social science, so you need a strategy that works regardless of subject matter.
A Reliable Strategy for Prediction and Extrapolation
Here is a four-step approach that works consistently on prediction and extrapolation questions. Practice it until it becomes automatic.
- Identify the Core Claim or Pattern
Before you can predict or extrapolate, you need to know what the passage is actually arguing or describing. Ask yourself: What is the author's central point? What pattern or trend is being established? Don't get distracted by secondary details. Find the through-line.
Metacognitive check: Can you summarize the passage's main idea in one sentence? If not, reread the opening and closing sentences, they almost always contain the core claim.
- Note the Direction of the Argument
Arguments move. They build, shift, concede, and conclude. Pay attention to transition words and structural signals: "however," "furthermore," "as a result," "despite this." These tell you where the author's reasoning is heading. A passage that ends with "and this trend shows no signs of slowing" points in a very different direction than one ending with "but recent evidence calls this assumption into question."
Metacognitive check: Is the passage building toward a conclusion, or away from an initial assumption? Knowing the direction helps you predict what the author would say next.
- Match the Scope and Tone
This is where many students go wrong. The correct answer on a prediction or extrapolation question will match the passage's scope and tone. If the author is cautious and measured, the answer won't be dramatic or absolute. If the passage discusses a narrow topic, say, the effect of one specific policy on one specific population, the answer won't suddenly broaden to all of humanity.
Metacognitive check: Before selecting an answer, ask: "Would this author actually say this, in this tone, about this topic?" If the answer feels too extreme, too broad, or too unrelated to the passage's specific argument, it's probably wrong.
- Eliminate Answers That Require Outside Knowledge
A common trap on prediction and extrapolation questions is an answer choice that sounds true in the real world but isn't supported by the passage itself. The SAT doesn't care what you personally know about climate science or economic theory, it cares whether the passage provides evidence for the answer. If you can't point to specific language in the text that supports your choice, move on to a better option.
Metacognitive check: For your selected answer, can you underline or mentally highlight the specific sentence or phrase in the text that supports it? If yes, you're in good shape. If not, reconsider.
Common Prediction & Extrapolation Traps
- Speculation: The answer invents a possibility that is not grounded in the passage's evidence.
- Scope Creep: The answer stretches a narrow claim into a broad generalization.
- Tone Shift: The answer is too certain, too dramatic, or too absolute for the author's cautious language.
- Outside Knowledge: The answer relies on real-world facts that the passage never mentions or supports.
Practice Prediction and Extrapolation with SAT-Style Questions
Note: The passages below are original, SAT-style constructions for practice; any names or details are fictionalized.
Now let's put the strategy to work. Each question below uses a short passage similar to what you'd encounter on the SAT. Read carefully, identify the core claim, note the direction, and match the scope and tone before selecting your answer.
Question 1
Passage
Recent archaeological findings in southeastern Turkey have revealed that monumental architecture predates the development of agriculture by several thousand years. The site of Göbekli Tepe, with its elaborately carved stone pillars arranged in massive circular enclosures, was constructed by hunter-gatherer communities who had not yet domesticated plants or animals. This discovery has forced researchers to reconsider the long-held assumption that complex social organization emerged only after settled farming communities produced reliable food surpluses.
medium
Based on the passage, which of the following claims would the author most likely agree with?
Question 2
Passage
Dr. Elena Vasquez studied how bilingual children switch between languages in conversation, a phenomenon known as code-switching. Her research found that children who code-switch frequently demonstrate stronger executive function, the set of cognitive skills that includes working memory, flexible thinking, and self-control. Vasquez argued that the constant mental effort of managing two linguistic systems acts as a form of cognitive exercise, strengthening the same neural pathways used in complex problem-solving.
hard
If Vasquez's argument is correct, which of the following findings would be most consistent with her research?
Question 3
Passage
In the spring of 1963, the city of Birmingham, Alabama had become what many called the most segregated city in America. Martin Luther King Jr. and the Southern Christian Leadership Conference chose Birmingham deliberately, reasoning that a confrontation with the city's notoriously aggressive public safety commissioner, Bull Connor, would generate the national media attention necessary to build support for civil rights legislation. King later wrote that "the purpose of direct action is to create a situation so crisis-packed that it will inevitably open the door to negotiation."
medium
Based on King's reasoning as described in the text, how would he most likely have responded to an ally who suggested targeting a more moderate city where protests would proceed peacefully?
Question 4
Passage
A team of marine biologists observed that coral reefs near coastal cities with heavy agricultural runoff experienced significantly higher rates of bleaching than reefs in more isolated locations. The runoff introduced elevated levels of nitrogen and phosphorus into the water, which fueled the growth of algae that competed with coral for sunlight and oxygen. The researchers concluded that while rising ocean temperatures remain the primary global driver of coral bleaching, localized nutrient pollution substantially amplifies the vulnerability of reef systems to thermal stress.
medium
If the researchers' conclusion is accurate, which prediction about coral reef management is best supported by the passage?
Question 5
Passage
The narrator sat at her grandmother's kitchen table, turning a worn photograph between her fingers. In it, a young woman she barely recognized stood on the steps of a university library, one hand resting on a stack of textbooks, her chin tilted upward with an expression that seemed to dare the camera. "She wanted to be a doctor," her mother had once said, with the particular flatness that meant the subject was closed. Now, staring at the photograph, the narrator understood that flatness for what it was, not indifference, but the sound a door makes when it has been shut for so long that no one remembers it was ever open.
hard
Based on the passage, which of the following best describes what the narrator would most likely do next?
Key Takeaways for Prediction and Extrapolation
- Prediction means following a passage's internal logic forward, what comes next within its own world. Extrapolation means applying a passage's reasoning to a new, unfamiliar context.
- Both skills require you to identify the core claim or pattern before attempting to go beyond the text. If you can't summarize the main idea, you aren't ready to predict or extrapolate.
- Always match the scope and tone of the passage. The correct answer will never be more extreme, more broad, or more confident than the author's own language.
- Eliminate answers that require outside knowledge. The SAT rewards disciplined reasoning from evidence, not general expertise. If you can't point to something in the text that supports your choice, it's not the right answer.
- Watch for direction signals, transition words, concluding statements, and shifts in tone, that tell you where the author's argument is heading. These are your most reliable clues for prediction questions.
Conclusion: The Core Rule for Prediction and Extrapolation
Prediction and extrapolation are often considered among the most challenging skills on the SAT Reading and Writing section, but here's what makes them so rewarding to master: they're the same skills you use when you truly understand something. When you can take an author's argument and extend it logically, whether forward in the same passage or outward to a new situation, you're demonstrating the deepest kind of reading comprehension. You're not just absorbing information; you're thinking with it.
The strategy you've practiced here works across every passage type you'll encounter on test day. Identify the core claim. Note the direction. Match the scope and tone. Stay grounded in evidence. These four steps will keep you disciplined when answer choices try to lure you into speculation or overstatement.
And the best part? These skills don't stop being useful after the SAT. Every time you read a news article and ask, "What does this mean for what happens next?", every time you encounter a new problem and think, "This reminds me of something I've seen before", you're predicting and extrapolating. You're not just preparing for a test. You're becoming a stronger, more perceptive reader, and that's a skill that compounds for the rest of your life.
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